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- PublicationAccès libreCO2 embodied in trade: trends and fossil fuel driversThe amount of CO2 embodied in trade has substantially increased over the last decades. We contribute to understanding the reasons for this evolution by studying the trends and some drivers of the carbon intensity of trade over the period 1995–2009 in 41 countries and 35 sectors. Our empirical analysis relies on the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) to compute embodied carbon emissions. Our main findings are the following. First, average emission intensity of traded goods is higher than average emission intensity of final demand. Second, relatively “dirty” countries tend to specialize in emission-intensive sectors. Third, the share of goods produced in emission-intensive countries is rising. Finally, we find that coal abundance (measured as fuel rent and controlling for reverse causality) leads both to a specialization in “dirty” sectors and to an increase in emissions per output when controlling for sector structure, which amounts to a fossil fuel endowment effect. These findings suggest trade liberalization may increase global emissions and therefore highlight the importance of considering trade when designing CO2 reduction strategies.
- PublicationAccès libreA Global Compass for the Great Divergence: Emissions vs. Production Centers of Gravity 1820‐2008We construct the world's centers of gravity for human population, GDP and CO2 emissions by taking the best out of five recognized data sources covering the last two centuries. On the basis of a novel distorsion‐free representation of these centers of gravity, we find a radical Western shift of GDP and CO2 emissions centers in the 19th century, in sharp contrast with the stability of the demographic center of gravity. Both GDP and emissions trends are reversed in the first half of the 20th century, after World War I for CO2 emissions, after World War II for GDP. Since then, both centers are moving eastward at an accelerating speed. These patterns are perfectly consistent with the lead of Western countries starting the industrial revolution, the gradual replacement of coal by oil and gas as alternative sources of energy, and the progressive catch up of Asian countries in the recent past.
- PublicationAccès libreLCA of mobility solutions: approaches and findings—66th LCA forum, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, 30 August, 2017(2018-2-15)The presentations and discussions showed that the demand for transportation services will likely continue to grow substantially in the next decades. At the same time, the Paris Agreement requires a substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions to comply with the below 2 °C scenario or even the 1.5 °C scenario. In the past years, a lot of progress was made on the models on transportation and mobility, and the knowledge on the environmental impacts of the various transport modes substantially improved. However, the silver bullet for environmentally benign mobility seems not within reach in the coming years, and reducing the environmental impacts of mobility remains a technological and societal challenge.
- PublicationAccès libreGeographical spread of global emissions: Within-country inequalities are large and increasingIn spite of the extensive literature on greenhouse gas emission inequalities at the world-wide level, most of the evidence so far has been based on country-level data. However, the within-country dimension matters for both the implementation and the policy formation of climate policies. As a preliminary step towards a better understanding of within-country inequalities, this paper measures their extent for the two major greenhouse gases, CO2 and CH4, over the 1970–2008 period. Using Theil-index decompositions, we show that within-country inequalities account for the bulk of global inequality, and tend to increase over the sample period, in contrast with diminishing between-country inequalities. Including differences across sectors reveals that between-sector inequalities matter more than between-country inequalities, and between-sector inequalities become the dominant source of global inequality at the end of the sample period in the CO2 case. Finally, estimated social tensions arising from the disconnection between emissions and future damages turn out to be increasing as soon as within-country disparities are taken into account. These orders of magnitude should be kept in mind while discussing the efficiency and fairness of alternative paths in combating global warming.
- PublicationMétadonnées seulementDeterminants of mobility ownership in Switzerland: changes between 2000 and 2010(2016)
;Kowald, Matthias ;Barbara, Kieser ;Justen, AndreasThe future development in mobility resource ownership is of great interest as the individual mobility behavior has critical impacts on transport infrastructure, land use, energy consumption, and environmental issues, such as greenhouse gas emissions and local air pollutants. Analysis and forecasts of mobility resource ownership as needed for example in transport modelling or forecast studies, however, usually employ data of the latest national travel surveys available. Therefore, changes in mobility resource ownership over time are often ignored. Estimating logit-based decision models on the large scale Swiss national travel survey data for 2000 and 2010, the study identifies determinants of mobility resource ownership for the main mobility resources (driving licenses, car availability, general abonnement travel tickets, and half fare travel tickets), identifying also significant changes over time. The predictor variables comprise socio-economic and socio-demographic variables, spatial structure features, and mobility resource specific characteristics. Our results show that age, sex, income, the size of the community, and geographical region influence mobility resource ownership in both years, 2000 and 2010. Furthermore, car-based and public transport-based mobility resources are substitutes for each other. Between 2000 and 2010 a behavioral change is observed for selected sub-populations: In 2010 women and persons above 40 years old are more likely to own a driving license and have a car available than in 2000. In addition, the positive effect of income on driving license and car ownership becomes smaller over time. Finally the previously neglected variables, such as household structure, employment status and level of education are found to be significant in the explanation of mobility resource ownership.
- PublicationAccès libreEnergy-tax changes and competitiveness: the role of adaptive capacity(2015)
;Gonseth, Camille ; ;Cadot, OlivierThalmann, PhilippeThis paper estimates the effect of energy tax (and price) changes on Total Factor Productivity (TFP) and net trade at the industry level, using a panel of industries from European countries covering the period 1990–2003. We investigate the hypothesis that industries with high adaptive capacity (measured by their relative level of labour compensation) are able to mitigate the adverse effects of energy tax rises better than others. We identify the pro-adaptation effect by interacting wage levels (a proxy for human capital) with energy taxes. We find that the negative marginal effect of higher energy taxes on TFP and net trade is significantly reduced for industries with stronger human capital and even turns to an overall positive effect in at least two cases. Up to three low-wage sectors display an overall negative effect. This suggests that human capital is key to adaptation to higher energy costs and climate policy, in some cases making it a win-win.
- PublicationAccès libreEnergy abundance, trade and specialisation(2015)
;Michielsen, Thomas ;Gerlagh, ReyerDo countries with large energy endowments have larger energy-intensive sectors? We answer this question empirically using a panel with 14 high-income countries from Europe, America and Asia and 10 broad sectors, from 1970 to 1997. Energy-abundant countries have 7 to 10 percent higher employment and 13 to 17 percent higher net exports per value added in energy-intensive sectors vis-a`-vis otherwise comparable countries. Conversely, energy-scarce countries specialize in non-energy-intensive sectors.
- PublicationAccès libreIndustrial Location in Chinese Provinces: Does Energy Abundance Matter?We identify the driving factors of manufacturing activity across Chinese provinces with a particular focus on energy endowments. A model of production location is estimated, including both comparative advantage and economic geography determinants. The data set used consists of a panel of 28 Chinese provinces and 12 manufacturing industries over the period 1999-2009. Results confirm the relative importance of energy endowments. We find that larger energy endowments are significantly correlated with larger production of energy-intensive sectors. Disaggregating across energy carriers shows that coal exhibits the strongest impact. These results are robust across alternative specifications.
- PublicationAccès libreTrade and Climate Policies: Do Emissions from International Transport Matter?No abstract is available for this item.
- PublicationAccès libreThe pollution terms of trade and its five componentsBased on two extensions, this paper proposes a re-appraisal of the concept of the pollution terms of trade (PTT) introduced by Antweiler (1996). First, detailed data allows capturing the effect of differences in emission intensities across countries and over time. Second, relying on Johnson and Noguera (2012), the revised PTT index controls for trade in intermediate goods and is based on value-added rather than gross output figures. Applied to a database for SO2 emission intensities for 62 developed and developing countries over the 1990?2000 period, it turns out that the first extension has a larger empirical importance than the second one. The global pattern is one in which the major rich economies exhibit a PTT index below one (higher pollution intensity in imports than in exports). Trade imbalances tend to exacerbate this asymmetry, allowing rich economies to further offshore their pollution through trade.