Zemp, Clara

2022, Dominic Andreas Martin, Fanilo Andrianisaina, Thio Rosin Fulgence, Kristina Osen, Anjaharinony Andry Ny Aina Rakotomalala, Estelle Raveloaritiana, Marie Rolande Soazafy, Annemarie Wurz, Rouvah Andriafanomezantsoa, Harilala Andriamaniraka, Aristide Andrianarimisa, Jan Barkmann, Saskia Dröge, Ingo Grass, Nathaly Guerrero-Ramirez, Hendrik Hänke, Dirk Hölscher, Bakolimalala Rakouth, Hery Lisy Tiana Ranarijaona, Romual Randriamanantena, Fanomezana Mihaja Ratsoavina, Lala Harivelo Raveloson Ravaomanarivo, Dominik Schwab, Teja Tscharntke, Zemp, Clara, Holger Kreft

Finding entry points where policy has strong leverage to transform land systems for people and nature is pivotal. We develop an innovative framework to identify and evaluate such leverage points along land-use trajectories that account for path dependency. Applied to the biodiversity hotspot Madagascar, the framework reveals three leverage points: Two leverage points are associated with trade-offs between biodiversity, ecosystem services, and agricultural productivity, while the third entails cobenefits. Swift policy action is required, as path dependency caused by forest loss may soon put two leverage points out of reach. We argue that such closing windows of opportunity may be common, but often overlooked, calling for a wider consideration of path dependency in land-system science.