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Energy Efficiency and Energy Demand: Structural Analysis of Rebound Effects
Titre du projet
Energy Efficiency and Energy Demand: Structural Analysis of Rebound Effects
Description
The rebound effect refers to the behavioral or other systemic responses to new technologies that increase the efficiency of resource use. These responses tend to offset the beneficial effects of the new technology. In particular the rebound effect to energy efficient technologies has a crucial role in identifying energy demand and its evolution. Identification of the rebound effect is a challenging empirical problem because of endogeneity and self-selection issues regarding the adoption of technologies. To date, there is no comprehensive study of the rebound effect that roots empirical analysis to the economic theory. Moreover, despite the great importance of rebound effects in energy consumption there is little research based on micro-level data, addressing the endogeneity problem. In particular in the case of Switzerland there is hardly any economic research on the rebound effect.
This study adopts a structural estimation approach for identifying the rebound effect in energy consumption. The structural model of energy demand will be based on a conceptual decision-making problem, including the adoption decision and the intensity of usage. The two decisions are made simultaneously hence requiring a simultaneous system of structural equations for the selection of efficiency level and the energy demand. While the structural approach will be based on similar models used in empirical industrial organization, we envisage alternative theoretical developments based on both standard and non-standard utility theory. In each case, a tractable econometric model will be derived based on the economic theory.
We are notably interested in the role of heterogeneous preferences and consumer characteristics on the endogenous determinants of the rebound effect, as well as other mechanisms yielding indirect rebound effects. Additional information on the demand in other energy sectors collected at the micro level will enable us to characterize such indirect rebound effects. The analysis will be based on the available micro-level data as well as additional data that are planned to be collected. The collected data include household energy consumption as well as a choice experiment with hypothetical decisions about energy consumption and technology alternatives such as the type and energy efficiency of consumer durables used by the household. The developed structural econometric framework would enable us to relate the estimated parameters of the empirical model to the theory.
The structural approach will be a strong potential contribution to the field of energy economics. With the developed models applied to household and aggregate data from Switzerland, we will achieve an important product of this research namely, the assessment of the rebound effects in energy demand of Swiss consumers. Here, we plan to focus at a first stage, on fuel consumption and cars, in which the available data allow a relatively quick analysis. The direct rebound effect in the transport sector as well as the indirect rebound effects in the overall energy demand will be examined in later stages using the household data.
At the aggregate level, we will extend previous studies by estimating a simultaneous system of structural equations. We will introduce new econometric specifications with heterogeneous parameters and improve the identification strategy. The study will be completed by applying the proposed methods to data collected at the micro level and the outcomes of a choice experiment conducted among Swiss households. The collected micro-level data will be a unique basis not only for further research on potential rebound effects within and across different sectors but provide an empirical basis for the assessment of behavioral elements of consumers’ responses to energy efficient technologies. This research will also have significant policy implications. A better identification of the rebound effect would allow more refined policies with targeted efforts towards energy conservation. Finally, the proposed empirical study provides a basis for welfare analyses that can be used to assess the impact of various energy policies.
This study adopts a structural estimation approach for identifying the rebound effect in energy consumption. The structural model of energy demand will be based on a conceptual decision-making problem, including the adoption decision and the intensity of usage. The two decisions are made simultaneously hence requiring a simultaneous system of structural equations for the selection of efficiency level and the energy demand. While the structural approach will be based on similar models used in empirical industrial organization, we envisage alternative theoretical developments based on both standard and non-standard utility theory. In each case, a tractable econometric model will be derived based on the economic theory.
We are notably interested in the role of heterogeneous preferences and consumer characteristics on the endogenous determinants of the rebound effect, as well as other mechanisms yielding indirect rebound effects. Additional information on the demand in other energy sectors collected at the micro level will enable us to characterize such indirect rebound effects. The analysis will be based on the available micro-level data as well as additional data that are planned to be collected. The collected data include household energy consumption as well as a choice experiment with hypothetical decisions about energy consumption and technology alternatives such as the type and energy efficiency of consumer durables used by the household. The developed structural econometric framework would enable us to relate the estimated parameters of the empirical model to the theory.
The structural approach will be a strong potential contribution to the field of energy economics. With the developed models applied to household and aggregate data from Switzerland, we will achieve an important product of this research namely, the assessment of the rebound effects in energy demand of Swiss consumers. Here, we plan to focus at a first stage, on fuel consumption and cars, in which the available data allow a relatively quick analysis. The direct rebound effect in the transport sector as well as the indirect rebound effects in the overall energy demand will be examined in later stages using the household data.
At the aggregate level, we will extend previous studies by estimating a simultaneous system of structural equations. We will introduce new econometric specifications with heterogeneous parameters and improve the identification strategy. The study will be completed by applying the proposed methods to data collected at the micro level and the outcomes of a choice experiment conducted among Swiss households. The collected micro-level data will be a unique basis not only for further research on potential rebound effects within and across different sectors but provide an empirical basis for the assessment of behavioral elements of consumers’ responses to energy efficient technologies. This research will also have significant policy implications. A better identification of the rebound effect would allow more refined policies with targeted efforts towards energy conservation. Finally, the proposed empirical study provides a basis for welfare analyses that can be used to assess the impact of various energy policies.
Chercheur principal
Statut
Completed
Date de début
1 Juin 2013
Date de fin
30 Septembre 2016
Organisations
Identifiant interne
17339
identifiant
8 Résultats
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- PublicationMétadonnées seulementA simple command to calculate travel distance and travel time(2017-12)
; Obtaining the routing distance between two addresses should not be a hassle with current technology. Unfortunately, this is more complicated than it first seems. Recently, several commands have been implemented for this purpose (traveltime, traveltime3, mqtime, osrmtime), but most of them became obsolete only a few months after their introduction or appear complicated to use. In this article, we introduce the community-contributed command georoute, which retrieves travel distance and travel time between two points defined either by their addresses or by their geographical coordinates. Compared with other existing commands, it is simple to use, efficient in terms of computational speed, and versatile regarding the information that can be provided as input. - PublicationMétadonnées seulementTurn It Up and Open the Window: On the Rebound Effects in Residential Heating(2018-7)
; ; This paper investigates how households respond to efficiency improvements of their heating system. The analysis is based on the stated preference approach with an innovative choice experiment. The design includes questions to quantify both the direct and indirect rebounds. A series of easy discrete possible changes have been suggested to prime the respondents for deciding on potential actions impacting their heating service demand. Responses to these qualitative choices are moreover used to cross-validate the quantitative results. Overall, we find relatively low direct rebound effects. However, after accounting for the indirect rebound calculated using energy embodied in goods and services purchased by re-spending initial savings, we estimate an average total rebound of about one third. The econometric analysis points to substantial variations across individuals that are partly explained by observed characteristics. The results are consistent with the conjunction that heating is a basic need which calls for little rebound in high-income groups. - PublicationAccès libreTravel Distance and Fuel Efficiency: An Estimation of the Rebound Effect using Micro-Data in SwitzerlandWe estimate the rebound effect for private transportation using cross-section micro-level data in Switzerland for 2010. Our simultaneous equations model accounts for endogeneity of travel distance, vehicle fuel intensity and vehicle weight. Compared to the literature, our paper provides an important contribution as micro-level data and simultaneous equations models have seldom been used to estimate the rebound effect. Moreover, among the distance measures we use, one is highly reliable as it was recorded using GIS (Geographical Information System) software. Our results, obtained by 3SLS, point to substantial direct rebound effects between 75% and 81%, which lie at the higher end of the estimates found in the literature. OLS estimates are however much lower and seem to under-estimate the rebound effect.
- PublicationAccès libreConsumers' preferences on the Swiss car market: A revealed preference approach(2019-3)This paper investigates demand responses to variations in the characteristics of the vehicles. Our investigation is based on number of sales for each model marketed over the period 2006–2015 in Switzerland, and puts particular emphasis on fuel efficiency, curb weight, horsepower, and the potential interactions between these attributes. We find that market shares are significantly higher for more efficient and powerful vehicles, while light cars are preferred to heavy ones. Our results also point to a gradual increase of sensitivity to fuel efficiency over the last decade. However, interaction effects between engine fuel efficiency and power indicate a lower marginal valuation of fuel efficiency in the market segments for relatively powerful cars, hence a lower sensitivity to fuel efficiency among the consumers with the highest potential for polluting emissions. Also, these findings point to potential rebound effects, where consumers give up part of the expected fuel savings by purchasing more powerful vehicles.