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Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations
Auteur(s)
Scheufele, Rolf
Date de parution
2017-12-1
In
International Journal of Forecasting
Vol.
4
No
33
De la page
878
A la page
893
Revu par les pairs
1
Résumé
This paper investigates the information content of a large sectoral mixed-frequency business tendency survey for Switzerland relative to competing early available monthly information. Using a factor-augmented regression framework, we find that a broad set of dimensions of the survey provides additional information for explaining CPI inflation, employment growth and the output gap. However, the survey contains no additional information for GDP growth. A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise suggests that the survey information is particularly useful for forecasting the medium-term CPI inflation.
Identifiants
Autre version
https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0169207017300547
Type de publication
journal article
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