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  • Publication
    Accès libre
    Can one identify karst conduit networks geometry and properties from hydraulic and tracer test data?
    Karst aquifers are characterized by extreme heterogeneity due to the presence of karst conduits embedded in a fractured matrix having a much lower hydraulic conductivity. The resulting contrast in the physical properties of the system implies that the system reacts very rapidly to some changes in the boundary conditions and that numerical models are extremely sensitive to small modifications in properties or positions of the conduits. Furthermore, one major issue in all those models is that the location and size of the conduits is generally unknown. For all those reasons, estimating karst network geometry and their properties by solving an inverse problem is a particularly difficult problem.
    In this paper, two numerical experiments are described. In the first one, 18,000 flow and transport simulations have been computed and used in a systematic manner to assess statistically if one can retrieve the parameters of a model (geometry and radius of the conduits, hydraulic conductivity of the conduits) from head and tracer data. When two tracer test data sets are available, the solution of the inverse problems indicate with high certainty that there are indeed two conduits and not more. The radius of the conduits are usually well identified but not the properties of the matrix. If more conduits are present in the system, but only two tracer test data sets are available, the inverse problem is still able to identify the true solution as the most probable but it also indicates that the data are insufficient to conclude with high certainty.
    In the second experiment, a more complex model (including non linear flow equations in conduits) is considered. In this example, gradient-based optimization techniques are proved to be efficient for estimating the radius of the conduits and the hydraulic conductivity of the matrix in a promising and efficient manner.
    These results suggest that, despite the numerical difficulties, inverse methods should be used to constrain numerical models of karstic systems using flow and transport data. They also suggest that a pragmatic approach for these complex systems could be to generate a large set of karst conduit network realizations using a pseudo-genetic approach such as SKS, and for each karst realization, flow and transport parameters could be optimized using a gradient-based search such as the one implemented in PEST.
  • Publication
    Accès libre
    Truncated Plurigaussian Simulations to Characterize Aquifer Heterogeneity
    Integrating geological concepts, such as relative positions and proportions of the different lithofacies, is of highest importance in order to render realistic geological patterns. The truncated plurigaussian simulation method provides a way of using both local and conceptual geological information to infer the distributions of the facies and then those of hydraulic parameters. The method (Le Loc'h and Galli 1994) is based on the idea of truncating at least two underlying multi-Gaussian simulations in order to create maps of categorical variable. In this article, we show how this technique can be used to assess contaminant migration in highly heterogeneous media. We illustrate its application on the biggest contaminated site of Switzerland. It consists of a contaminant plume located in the lower fresh water Molasse on the western Swiss Plateau. The highly heterogeneous character of this formation calls for efficient stochastic methods in order to characterize transport processes.
  • Publication
    Accès libre
    A method for the stochastic modeling of karstic systems accounting for geophysical data:: an example of application in the region of Tulum, Yucatan Peninsula (Mexico)
    Vuilleumier, Cécile
    ;
    ; ;
    Ottowitz, David
    ;
    Schiller, A.
    ;
    Supper, Robert
    ;
    The eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico, contains one of the most developed karst systems in the world. This natural wonder is undergoing increasing pollution threat due to rapid economic development in the region of Tulum, together with a lack of wastewater treatment facilities. A preliminary numerical model has been developed to assess the vulnerability of the resource. Maps of explored caves have been completed using data from two airborne geophysical campaigns. These electromagnetic measurements allow for the mapping of unexplored karstic conduits. The completion of the network map is achieved through a stochastic pseudo-genetic karst simulator, previously developed but adapted as part of this study to account for the geophysical data. Together with the cave mapping by speleologists, the simulated networks are integrated into the finite-element flow-model mesh as pipe networks where turbulent flow is modeled. The calibration of the karstic network parameters (density, radius of the conduits) is conducted through a comparison with measured piezometric levels. Although the proposed model shows great uncertainty, it reproduces realistically the heterogeneous flow of the aquifer. Simulated velocities in conduits are greater than 1 cm s−1, suggesting that the reinjection of Tulum wastewater constitutes a pollution risk for the nearby ecosystems.
  • Publication
    Accès libre
    Stochastic forecasts of seawater intrusion towards sustainable groundwater management: application to the Korba aquifer (Tunisia)
    A stochastic study of long-term forecasts of seawater intrusion with an application to the Korba aquifer (Tunisia) is presented. Firstly, a geostatistical model of the exploitation rates was constructed, based on a multi-linear regression model combining incomplete direct data and exhaustive secondary information. Then, a new method was designed and used to construct a geostatistical model of the hydraulic conductivity field by combining lithological information and data from hydraulic tests. Secondly, the effects of the uncertainties associated with the pumping rates and the hydraulic conductivity field on the 3D density-dependent transient model were analysed separately and then jointly. The forecasts of the impacts of two different management scenarios on seawater intrusion in the year 2048 were performed by means of Monte Carlo simulations, accounting for uncertainties in the input parameters as well as possible changes of the boundary conditions. Combining primary and secondary data allowed maps of pumping rates and the hydraulic conductivity field to be constructed, despite a lack of direct data. The results of the stochastic long-term forecasts showed that, most probably, the Korba aquifer will be subject to important losses in terms of regional groundwater resources.