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  • Publication
    Accès libre
    Generalized urn models of evolutionary processes
    (2004) ;
    Schreiber, Sebastian
    ;
    Tarres, Pierre
    Generalized Polya urn models can describe the dynamics of finite populations of interacting genotypes. Three basic questions these models can address are: Under what conditions does a population exhibit growth? On the event of growth, at what rate does the population increase? What is the long-term behavior of the distribution of genotypes? To address these questions, we associate a mean limit ordinary differential equation (ODE) with the urn model. Previously, it has been shown that on the event of population growth, the limiting distribution of genotypes is a connected internally chain recurrent set for the mean limit ODE. To determine when growth and convergence occurs with positive probability, we prove two results. First, if the mean limit ODE has an "attainable" attractor at which growth is expected, then growth and convergence toward this attractor occurs with positive probability. Second, the population distribution almost surely does not converge to sets where growth is not expected and almost surely does not converge to "nondegenerate" unstable equilibria or periodic orbits of the mean limit ODE. Applications to stochastic analogs of the replicator equations and fertility-selection equations of population genetics are given.
  • Publication
    Accès libre
    Vertex-reinforced random walks and a conjecture of pemantle
    We discuss and disprove a conjecture of Pemantle concerning vertex-reinforced random walks. The setting is a general theory of non-Markovian discrete-time random processes on a finite space E = {1,...,d}, for which the transition probabilities at each step are influenced by the proportion of times each state has been visited. It is shown that, under mild conditions, the asymptotic behavior of the empirical occupation measure of the process is precisely related to the asymptotic behavior of some deterministic dynamical system induced by a vector field on the d - 1 unit simplex. In particular, any minimal attractor of this vector field has a positive probability to be the Limit set of the sequence of empirical occupation measures. These properties are used to disprove a conjecture and to extend some results due to Pemantle. Some applications to edge-reinforced random walks are also considered.