Aspirations in a warming world: Modeling migration and education decisions under climate risk in Senegal

The ability to project migration flows is important to government planners at multiple scales as they balance challenging tradeoffs in social infrastructure investments amid changing populations and escalating climate risks. Simulation methods such as agent-based modeling have generated important insights about the non-linear ways in which climate shocks may reshape migration decision-making processes. However, these approaches have previously demonstrated limited ability to account for how climate risks may shape migration decisions through changes to individuals’ long-term livelihood aspirations. Here, we develop an agent-based model of livelihood decisions in Senegal, one of Africa’s fastest-growing populations and economies, in which human capital investments – including migration and post-secondary education – emerge endogenously from agents’ dynamic livelihood aspirations. In doing so, we incorporate theoretical insights from the migration aspirations-capabilities framework to simulate how individuals weigh near-term investments against long-term opportunities. In collaboration with migration and development experts, we apply the model to assess how two of West Africa’s most significant climate risks, droughts and sea level rise, influence human capital investments at individual, regional, and national scales. We find that climate shocks alter both the timing and nature of human capital investments and shift population distributions. Notably, an interior crescent that has not typically served as a migration destination – including the departments of Podor, Nio du Rop, Sedhiou, and Kolda – emerges as a key safety corridor for migrants from climate-vulnerable coastal and rural zones. Further, we find that migration and access to higher education significantly improve resilience to short- and medium-term climate shocks, increasing individual incomes by 40 to 250 percent across different scenarios. Our findings demonstrate the value of integrating a livelihood aspirations framework with modeling tools to understand the long-term consequences of climate shocks on migration and economic outcomes. These insights can inform targeted investments in improved access to education and mobility to build resilience to these shocks.