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Kaufmann, Daniel
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Kaufmann, Daniel
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Site web
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Professeur ordinaire
Email
daniel.kaufmann@unine.ch
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Voici les éléments 1 - 6 sur 6
- PublicationAccès libreWie weiter mit der Tiefzinspolitik? Szenarien und AlternativenDiese Studie zeigt wie sich ein vorzeitiger Ausstieg aus der Tiefzinspolitik auf den Wechselkurs und die schweizerische Wirtschaft auswirken würde. Ein überraschender Ausstieg aus der Tiefzinspolitik würde den Schweizer Franken um 3-7% aufwerten. Zudem würde dies zu einem Rückgang der Wirtschaftsaktivität und der Konsumentenpreise führen. Es gibt jedoch alternative geldpolitische Strategien, die den Franken schwächen und die Nominalzinsen erhöhen. Dies würde eine höhere Inflationsrate erfordern. Cette étude démontre les effets d'une sortie prématurée de la politique de taux d'intérêt bas sur le taux de change et l'économie suisse. Si la BNS venait à inopinement abandonner la politique de taux d'intérêt bas, le franc suisse s'apprecierait de 3 à 7%. En plus, l'activité économique et les prix à la consommation baisseraient. Cependant, il existe des stratégies alternatives de politique monétaire qui déprécient le franc suisse et augmentent les taux d'intérêt nominaux. Cela nécessiterait une augmentation de l'inflation. This study shows the effect of a premature exit from the low interest rate policy on the exchange rate and the Swiss economy. A premature exit from the low interest rate policy would appreciate the Swiss franc by 3-7%. In addition, economic activity and consumer prices would decline. However, there are alternative monetary policy strategies that depreciate the Swiss franc and raise nominal interest rates. This would require a higher inflation rate.
- PublicationAccès libreA daily fever curve for the Swiss economy(Neuchâtel Université de Neuchâtel Institut de recherches économiques, 2020)
; Because macroeconomic data is published with a substantial delay, assessing the health of the economy during the rapidly evolving Covid-19 crisis is challenging. We develop a fever curve for the Swiss economy using publicly available daily financial market and news data. The indicator can be computed with a delay of one day. Moreover, it is highly correlated with macroeconomic data and survey indicators of Swiss economic activity. Therefore, it provides timely and reliable warning signals if the health of the economy takes a turn for the worse. - PublicationAccès libreDo sticky wages matter? New evidence from matched firm-survey and register data(Neuchâtel Université de Neuchâtel Institut de Recherches Economiques, 2020)
- PublicationAccès libreExport Prices, Markups, and Currency Choice after a Large AppreciationWe analyze export price adjustment of Swiss manufacturing firms using a novel data set of matched export, import, and domestic prices. After a large, unexpected, and permanent appreciation of the Swiss franc, export prices set in domestic currency fell less than export prices set in foreign currency. This difference prevails if we control for variation in firms' marginal cost. Through the lens of a structural model, this difference can be traced back to strategic complementarity in price setting for firms pricing in foreign currency. Meanwhile, firms setting prices in domestic currency exhibit no strategic complementarity and follow a constant markup-pricing rule.
- PublicationAccès libreShocking interest rate floorsWe analyze central bank debt as a tool to control money market rates. We show in a theoretical model that the money market rate increases with the volume of, and yield on, central bank debt. Moreover, issuing central bank debt implements an interest rate floor, similar to paying interest on reserves. We then exploit the unique institutional setting of a Swiss debt security program to identify the dynamic causal effects of two orthogonal shocks through heteroscedasticity. The money market rate shock has modest effects on other financial market variables. The expectation shock causes a strong and persistent appreciation of the Swiss franc, a decline in stock prices, a decline in long-term interest rates, and a rise in corporate bond risk premia. The two shocks explain up to 80% of the forecast-error variance in these variables.
- PublicationAccès libreThe timing of price changes and the role of heterogeneityWhile price-setting models usually suggest constant or increasing hazard functions for price changes, empirical studies often find decreasing hazards, possibly due to misspecified or neglected heterogeneity. This paper attempts to disentangle the downward bias into various sources: observed and unobserved heterogeneity which can be either constant or time-varying. Based on micro data from the Swiss CPI, the paper finds that in order to resolve the downward bias of the hazard function for price changes, we have to (i) control for time-varying heterogeneity in addition to cross-sectional factors and (ii) exclude temporary price changes such as sales prices from the data set. Among the time-varying factors affecting the probability of price changes, various proxies of firms' marginal costs seem to be key. The empirical findings presented in this paper are consistent with recent menu cost models which stress the role of time-varying heterogeneity and temporary price cuts for price setting.