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Lanz, Bruno

Nom
Lanz, Bruno
Affiliation principale
Site web
Fonction
Full Professor
Email
bruno.lanz@unine.ch
Identifiants
https://libra.unine.ch/handle/123456789/1101

Résultat de la recherche

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  • Publication
    Métadonnées seulement
  • Publication
    Métadonnées seulement
    The behavioral effect of Pigovian regulation: Evidence from a field experiment
    (2018-1)
    Lanz, Bruno 
    ;
    Wurlod, Jules
    ;
    Panzone, Luca
    ;
    Swanson, Tim
    Pigovian regulation provides monetary penalties/rewards to incentivize prosocial behavior, and may thereby trigger behavioral effects beyond a more standard response associated with a change in relative prices. This paper quantifies the magnitude of these behavioral effects using data from an experiment on real product choices together with a structural model of consumer behavior. First, we show that information about external effects (products' embodied carbon emissions) triggers voluntary substitution towards cleaner alternatives, and we estimate that this effect is equivalent to a change in relative prices of GBP30.69-165.15/tCO2. Second, comparing a Pigovian intervention (GBP19/tCO2) with a neutrally-framed price change of the same magnitude, we find a negative behavioral effect associated with regulation. Compensating this bias would require increasing the Pigovian price signal by up to 48.06/tCO2. Finally, based on a cross-product comparison, we show that the magnitude of behavioral effects declines with substitutability between clean and dirty product alternatives, a measure of effort to reduce emissions.
  • Publication
    Métadonnées seulement
    Global economic growth and agricultural land conversion under uncertain productivity improvements in agriculture
    (2018)
    Lanz, Bruno 
    ;
    Dietz, Simon
    ;
    Swanson, Tim
    We study how stochasticity in the evolution of agricultural productivity interacts with economic and population growth at the global level. We use a two-sector Schumpeterian model of growth, in which a manufacturing sector produces the traditional consumption good and an agricultural sector produces food to sustain contemporaneous population. Agriculture demands land as an input, itself treated as a scarce form of capital. In our model both population and sectoral technological progress are endogenously determined, and key technological parameters of the model are structurally estimated using 1960-2010 data on world GDP, population, cropland and technological progress. Introducing random shocks to the evolution of total factor productivity in agriculture, we show that uncertainty optimally requires more land to be converted into agricultural use as a hedge against production shortages, and that it significantly affects both optimal consumption and population trajectories.
  • Publication
    Métadonnées seulement
    Global population growth, technology, and Malthusian constraints: A quantitative growth theoretic perspective
    (2017-8-25)
    Lanz, Bruno 
    ;
    Dietz, Simon
    ;
    Swanson, Tim
    We structurally estimate a two-sector Schumpeterian growth model with endogenous population and finite land reserves to study the long-run evolution of global population, technological progress, and the demand for food. The estimated model closely replicates trajectories for world population, GDP, sectoral productivity growth, and crop land area from 1960 to 2010. Projections from 2010 onward show a slowdown of technological progress, and, because it is a key determinant of fertility costs, significant population growth. By 2100, global population reaches 12.4 billion and agricultural production doubles, but the land constraint does not bind because of capital investment and technological progress.
  • Publication
    Métadonnées seulement
    The expansion of modern agriculture and global biodiversity decline: An integrated assessment
    (IRENE Institute of Economic Research Working Paper, 2017)
    Lanz, Bruno 
    ;
    Dietz, Simon
    ;
    Swanson, Tim
    The world is banking on a major increase in food production, if the dietary needs and food preferences of an increasing, and increasingly rich, population are to be met. This requires the further expansion of modern agriculture, but modern agriculture rests on a small number of highly productive crops and its expansion has led to a significant loss of global biodiversity. Ecologists have shown that biodiversity loss results in lower plant productivity, while agricultural economists have linked biodiversity loss on farms with increasing variability of crop yields, and sometimes lower mean yields. In this paper we consider the macro-economic consequences of the continued expansion of particular forms of intensive, modern agriculture, with a focus on how the loss of biodiversity affects food production. We employ a quantitative, structurally estimated model of the global economy, which jointly determines economic growth, population and food demand, agricultural innovations and land conversion. We show that even small effects of agricultural expansion on productivity via biodiversity loss might be sufficient to warrant a moratorium on further land conversion.
  • Publication
    Métadonnées seulement
    Global economic growth and agricultural land conversion under uncertain productivity improvements in agriculture
    (IRENE Institute of Economic Research Working Paper, 2017)
    Lanz, Bruno 
    ;
    Dietz, Simon
    ;
    Swanson, Tim
    We study how stochasticity in the evolution of agricultural productivity interacts with economic and population growth at the global level. We use a two-sector Schumpeterian model of growth, in which a manufacturing sector produces the traditional consumption good and an agricultural sector produces food to sustain contemporaneous population. Agriculture demands land as an input, itself treated as a scarce form of capital. In our model both population and sectoral technological progress are endogenously determined, and key technological parameters of the model are structurally estimated using 1960-2010 data on world GDP, population, cropland and technological progress. Introducing random shocks to the evolution of total factor productivity in agriculture, we show that uncertainty optimally requires more land to be converted into agricultural use as a hedge against production shortages, and that it significantly affects both optimal consumption and population trajectories.
  • Publication
    Métadonnées seulement
    The Behavioral Effect of Pigovian Regulation: Evidence from a Field Experiment
    (IRENE Institute of Economic Research Working Paper, 2017)
    Lanz, Bruno 
    ;
    Wurlod, Jules
    ;
    Panzone, Luca
    ;
    Swanson, Tim
    Pigovian regulation provides monetary penalties/rewards to incentivize prosocial behavior, and may thereby trigger behavioral effects beyond a more standard response associated with a change in relative prices. This paper quantifies the magnitude of these behavioral effects using data from an experiment on real product choices together with a structural model of consumer behavior. First, we show that information about external effects (products’ embodied carbon emissions) triggers voluntary substitution towards cleaner alternatives, and we estimate that this effect is equivalent to a change in relative prices of GBP30.69-165.15/tCO2. Second, comparing a Pigovian intervention (GBP19/tCO2) with a neutrally-framed price change of the same magnitude, we find a negative behavioral effect associated with regulation. Compensating this bias would require increasing the Pigovian price signal by up to 48.06/tCO2. Finally, based on a cross-product comparison, we show that the magnitude of behavioral effects declines with substitutability between clean and dirty product alternatives, a measure of effort to reduce emissions.
  • Publication
    Métadonnées seulement
    Global population growth, technology and Malthusian constraints: A quantitative growth theoretic perspective
    (IRENE Institute of Economic Research Working Paper, 2016)
    Lanz, Bruno 
    ;
    Dietz, Simon
    ;
    Swanson, Tim
    How much will the global population expand, can all these extra mouths be fed, and what is the role in this story of economic growth? We structurally estimate a two-sector Schumpeterian growth model with endogenous population and finite land reserves to study the long-run evolution of global population, technological progress and the demand for food. The estimated model closely replicates trajectories for world population, GDP, sectoral productivity growth and crop land area from 1960 to 2010. Projections from 2010 onwards show a slowdown of technological progress, and, because it is a key determinant of fertility costs, significant population growth. By 2100 global population reaches 12.4 billion and agricultural production doubles, but the land constraint does not bind because of capital investment and technological progress.