Résultat de la recherche
Essays in climate and development economics
Dans ces trois chapitres, j'étudie la relation entre les chocs météorologiques, les catastrophes naturelles et des facteurs socio-démographiques dans une variété de contextes. Au chapitre 1, mes coauteurs et moi-même examinons l'impact des chocs de précipitations sur l'émigration en Turquie. Nous constatons une augmentation de l'exode rural après un choc de précipitations. Nous trouvons des preuves que ce phénomène est canalisé par le revenu, et que la spécialisation agricole d'une province joue également un rôle dans l'effet de canalisation du revenu agricole. Au chapitre 2, j'examine de quelle manière l'exposition aux sécheresses en Afrique peut augmenter le nombre d'enfants et les violences entre partenaires intimes. En utilisant une approche de pseudo-panel basée sur l'âge et le lieu de résidence, je montre que l'exposition à la sécheresse augmente la probabilité que les femmes aient un nouvel enfant et soient exposées à des violences sexuelles et physiques. Je montre également que l'utilisation de la contraception peut réduire l'augmentation du nombre de nouvel enfant, et que ces effets sont durables. Au chapitre 3, j'examine comment les chocs de catastrophes naturelles extrêmes peuvent réduire l'intensité des conflits. En utilisant des données provenant de 42 pays africains, je constate que les chocs de catastrophes naturelles extrêmes réduisent principalement l'intensité des conflits impliquant des gouvernements. De plus, je montre que les catastrophes naturelles extrêmes réduisent les violences létales et sexuelles contre les civils. Ces chapitres démontrent l'interaction entre les chocs météorologiques, les catastrophes naturelles et les facteurs socio-démographiques, soulignant la nécessité de politiques climatiques robustes et de recherches supplémentaires.
ABSTRACT:
In these three chapters, I examine the relationship between weather shocks, natural disasters, and socio-demographic factors in different contexts. In Chapter 1, co-authors and I investigate the impact of rainfall shocks on out-migration in Türkiye. We find that rural out-migration increases after precipitation shock. We find evidence that the channel through which this operates is income. In addition, the type of agriculture practiced in a province plays a role in the agricultural income channeling effect. In Chapter 2, I examine how exposure to droughts in Africa may increase the probability of women having a child and experiencing intimate violence. Using a pseudo-panel approach based on age and living area, I show that exposure to drought increases the probability of women having a new child and being exposed to sexual and physical intimate violence. I also show that the use of contraception can mitigate the increase in new births, and that these effects persist over time. In Chapter 3, I examine how extreme natural disaster shocks can reduce the intensity of conflicts. Using data from 42 African countries, I find that extreme natural disaster shocks predominantly decrease conflict intensity in cases where governments are involved. Furthermore, I show that extreme natural disasters diminish lethal and sexual violence against civilians. These chapters demonstrate the interplay between weather shocks, natural disasters, and socio-demographic factors, highlighting the need for robust climate policies and additional research.
Impacts of rainfall shocks on out-migration are moderated more by per capita income than by agricultural output in Türkiye
The chicken or the egg: Technology adoption and network infrastructure in the market for electric vehicles
We document non-linear stock effects in the relationship linking emerging technology adoption and network infrastructure increments. We exploit 2010-2017 data covering nascent to mature electric vehicle (EV) markets across 422 Norwegian municipalities together with two complementary identification strategies: control function regressions of EV sales on flexible polynomials in the stock of charging stations and charging points, and synthetic control methods to quantify the impact of initial infrastructure provision in municipalities that previously had none. Our results are consistent with indirect network effects and the behavioral bias called “range anxiety”, and support policies targeting early infrastructure provision to incentivize EV adoption.
Technology Adoption and Early Network Infrastructure Provision in the Market for Electric Vehicles
We document non-linear stock effects in the relationship linking emerging technology adoption and network infrastructure increments. We exploit 2010–2017 data covering nascent to mature electric vehicle (EV) markets across 422 Norwegian municipalities together with two complementary identification strategies: control function regressions of EV sales on flexible polynomials in the stock of charging stations and charging points, and synthetic control methods to quantify the impact of initial infrastructure provision in municipalities that previously had none. Our results are consistent with indirect network effects and the behavioral bias called “range anxiety,” and support policies targeting early infrastructure provision to incentivize EV adoption.
Impacts of rainfall shocks on out-migration are moderated more by per capita income than by agricultural output in Türkiye
Rural populations are particularly exposed to increasing weather variability, notably through agriculture. In this paper, we exploit longitudinal data for Turkish provinces from 2008 to 2018 together with precipitation records over more than 30 years to quantify how variability in a standardized precipitation index (SPI) affects out-migration as an adaptation mechanism. Doing so, we document the role of three potential causal channels: per capita income, agricultural output, and local conflicts. Our results show that negative SPI shocks (droughts) are associated with higher out-migration in rural provinces. A mediated-moderator approach further suggests that changes in per capita income account for more than one quarter of the direct effect of droughts on out-migration, whereas agricultural output is only relevant for provinces in the upper quartile of crop production. Finally, we find evidence that local conflict fatalities increase with drought and trigger out-migration, although this channel is distinct from the direct effect of SPI shocks on out-migration.