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  • Publication
    Métadonnées seulement
    Multiresolution Approach to Condition Categorical Multiple-Point Realizations to Dynamic Data With Iterative Ensemble Smoothing
    A new methodology is presented for the conditioning of categorical multiple-point statistics (MPS) simulations to dynamic data with an iterative ensemble smoother (ES-MDA). The methodology relies on a novel multiresolution parameterization of the categorical MPS simulation. The ensemble of latent parameters is initially defined on the basis of the coarsest-resolution simulations of an ensemble of multiresolution MPS simulations. Because this ensemble is non-multi-Gaussian, additional steps prior to the computation of the first update are proposed. In particular, the parameters are updated at predefined locations at the coarsest scale and integrated as hard data to generate a new multiresolution MPS simulation. The performance of the methodology was assessed on a synthetic groundwater flow problem inspired from a real situation. The results illustrate that the method converges towards a set of final categorical realizations that are consistent with the initial categorical ensemble. The convergence is reliable in the sense that it is fully controlled by the integration of the ES-MDA update into the new conditional multiresolution MPS simulations. Thanks to a massively reduced number of parameters compared to the size of the categorical simulation, the identification of the geological structures during the data assimilation is particularly efficient for this example. The comparison between the estimated uncertainty and a reference estimate obtained with a Monte Carlo method shows that the uncertainty is not severely reduced during the assimilation as is often the case. The connectivity is successfully reproduced during the iterative procedure despite the rather large distance between the observation points.
  • Publication
    Accès libre
    Conditioning Multi-Gaussian Groundwater Flow Parameters to Transient Hydraulic Head and Flowrate Data With Iterative Ensemble Smoothers: A Synthetic Case Study
    Over the last decade, data assimilation methods based on the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) have been particularly explored in various geoscience fields to solve inverse problems. Although this type of ensemble methods can handle high-dimensional systems, they assume that the errors coming from whether the observations or the numerical model are multivariate Gaussian. To handle existing non-linearities between the observations and the variables to estimate, iterative methods have been proposed. In this paper, we investigate the feasibility of using the ensemble smoother and two iterative variants for the calibration of a synthetic 2D groundwater model inspired by a real nuclear storage problem in France. Using the same set of sparse and transient flow data, we compare the results of each method when employing them to condition an ensemble of multi-Gaussian groundwater flow parameter fields. In particular, we explore the benefit of transforming the state observations to improve the parameter identification performed by one of the two iterative algorithms tested. Despite the favorable case of a multi-Gaussian parameter distribution addressed, we show the importance of defining an ensemble size of at least 200 to obtain sufficiently accurate parameter and uncertainty estimates for the groundwater flow inverse problem considered.