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End of the ICE Age: the economics of the green transport transition
Les externalités négatives importantes de la combustion fossile par des véhicules ont le potentiel d'être surmonté par l'électrification croissante du secteur de transport. Cette transition fait face, cependant, à des externalités diverses dû à l'achat et à l'utilisation de la voiture, aux technologies nouvelles et l'infrastructure développant, et au comportement du consommateur. Dans ce contexte, cette thèse présente une analyse des choix de déplacement, des obstacles à l'adoption des voitures électriques (VE), et de l'importance de l'infrastructure complémentaire.
Les investissements dans une voiture ou dans un abonnement aux transports publics pourraient affecter les modes de déplacement. Chapitre 1 présente une expérience de choix séquentielle qui établit un lien entre les choix de voiture et d'abonnement aux transports publics, et les décisions de mode de déplacement. Les résultats des analyses montrent que l'adoption de VE n'affecte pas beaucoup les choix de mode de transport au-delà des réactions aux coûts marginaux de déplacement variés. Les coûts irrécupérables (prix de l'investissement initial) ont également aucune influence. Un effet d'engagement modal est largement rejeté, cependant, les répondants ayant choisi un dispositif de mobilité montrent une sensibilité plus faible à la durée des trajets d'autre modes. L'adoption des VE est néanmoins confrontée à des obstacles importants, en particulier pour atteindre une adoption de masse. Chapitre 2 présente également une analyse des choix de type de voiture des répondants de l'expérience ci-dessus. Elle constate que la demande de VE est significative mais inélastique en ce qui concerne le prix d'achat, mais que la sensibilité à l'autonomie et aux coûts de conduite est insignificative. Il existe toutefois une hétérogénéité entre les répondants. Il montre également des préférences technologiques stables parmi les propriétaires de voitures existantes et les utilisateurs réguliers de voitures. Le manque d'infrastructures de réseaux de recharge est un autre obstacle à l'adoption de nouvelles technologies et souffre d'une impasse de l'œuf et de la poule avec les fournisseurs de chargeurs. Chapitre 3 analyse un panel de données au niveau municipal à travers la Norvège, et démontre un impact significatif des installations de bornes de recharge supplémentaires sur les enregistrements de VE. Elle montre en particulier l'effet relativement important de la fourniture précoce d'infrastructures et l'impact durable des toutes premières stations.
ABSTRACT:
The significant negative externalities from vehicles' combustion of fossil fuels have the potential to be overcome through the increasing electrification of the transport sector. This transition faces, however, a wide range of externalities from car purchase and use, new technologies and developing infrastructure, and consumer travel behaviour. In this context, this thesis presents an analysis of travel choices, electric vehicle (EV) adoption barriers, and the importance of complementary network infrastructure.
Investments in a car or public transport pass could affect later travel modes. Chapter 1 presents a unique sequential choice experiment of 995 respondents that links car and public transport subscription choices to travel mode decisions. The choice analysis results show that EV adoption does not greatly affect mode choices beyond reactions to varied marginal travel costs. Sunk costs (upfront investment price) also have no influence. A mode commitment effect is largely rejected, however, respondents having chosen a mobility device show lower sensitivity to other modes' trip time. EV adoption, though, faces significant barriers; particularly as the market moves beyond early adopters towards mass adoption. Chapter 2 further presents an analysis of the car type preferences of 882 choice experiment respondents. It finds significant but inelastic EV demand regarding purchase prices, however insignificant sensitivity to driving range and driving costs. There is some heterogeneity, however, across respondents. It also shows stable car preferences among existing car owners and regular car users, while those without a car and public transport users are most likely to adopt an EV. A lack of charging network infrastructure is a further hindrance to the adoption of new technologies and suffers from a chicken-and-egg stand-off with charger providers. Chapter 3 analyses a panel of municipal-level data across Norway and demonstrates a significant impact of additional charging station installations on EV registrations. It especially shows the relatively large effect of early infrastructure provision and the long-lasting, path-determining impact of the very first stations.
Carsharing experience fostering sustainable car purchasing? Investigating car size and powertrain choice
Scholars suggest that carsharing may lead to a reduction in car ownership and car travel. Research on how carsharing is connected to other sustainable effects such as an increased openness to micro to mid-sized battery electric vehicles is limited, however. We thus adopted a stated choice survey with 995 participants from Switzerland to test the car purchase preference of mobility users with and without carsharing experience. Results suggest that - for people living in the countryside - carsharing users have a 3 times higher likelihood of choosing a micro to mid-sized battery electric vehicle compared to participants without carsharing experience. We find a similar trend for people living in the agglomerations. We therefore recommend policy makers and mobility planners to take these benefits into account when planning carsharing services and its role in mobility systems.
Commitments and sunk costs in private mobility: A study of Swiss households facing green transport choices
This paper experimentally investigates the existence of behavioural deviations from the oft-assumed rationality in private transport decisions, avoiding the selection-biases in revealed data. Through a choice experiment answered by 995 Swiss respondents, we explore the linkages between long- and medium-term travel investment decisions, and the choice of transport mode. We test the existence of commitment device usage in car and public transport pass purchases, and the sunk cost fallacy, as well as the impact of electric vehicles on mode choice. We find little evidence to support the existence of commitment devices, and no sunk cost fallacy. We further show that electric vehicle owners are equally likely to commute in their car, however use a greater mix of transport modes for leisure and long-distance trips. Our results support the importance of marginal travel costs in transport policy, as well as demonstrate the wide impact of rising EV consumption.
Technology Adoption and Early Network Infrastructure Provision in the Market for Electric Vehicles
We document non-linear stock effects in the relationship linking emerging technology adoption and network infrastructure increments. We exploit 2010–2017 data covering nascent to mature electric vehicle (EV) markets across 422 Norwegian municipalities together with two complementary identification strategies: control function regressions of EV sales on flexible polynomials in the stock of charging stations and charging points, and synthetic control methods to quantify the impact of initial infrastructure provision in municipalities that previously had none. Our results are consistent with indirect network effects and the behavioral bias called “range anxiety,” and support policies targeting early infrastructure provision to incentivize EV adoption.
Technology Adoption and Early Network Infrastructure Provision in the Market for Electric Vehicles
Rationality, Sunk Costs and Commitments in Transport Decision-Making: A Study of Swiss Households Facing Low-carbon Transport Choices
Travel Mode Choices in a Greening Market: The Impact of Electric Vehicles and Prior Investments
The chicken or the egg: Technology adoption and network infrastructure in the market for electric vehicles
We document non-linear stock effects in the relationship linking emerging technology adoption and network infrastructure increments. We exploit 2010-2017 data covering nascent to mature electric vehicle (EV) markets across 422 Norwegian municipalities together with two complementary identification strategies: control function regressions of EV sales on flexible polynomials in the stock of charging stations and charging points, and synthetic control methods to quantify the impact of initial infrastructure provision in municipalities that previously had none. Our results are consistent with indirect network effects and the behavioral bias called “range anxiety”, and support policies targeting early infrastructure provision to incentivize EV adoption.