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A daily fever curve for the Swiss economy
Abstract Because macroeconomic data is published with a substantial delay, assessing the health of the economy during the rapidly evolving Covid-19 crisis is challenging. We develop a fever curve for the Swiss economy using publicly available daily financial market and news data. The indicator can be computed with a delay of one day. Moreover, it is highly correlated with macroeconomic data and survey indicators of Swiss economic activity. Therefore, it provides timely and reliable warning signals if the health of the economy takes a turn for the worse.
   
Keywords Covid-19, Leading indicator, Financial market data, News sentiment, Forecasting, Switzerland
   
Citation Burri, M., & Kaufmann, D. (2020). A daily fever curve for the Swiss economy. Unpublished Working Paper. Université de Neuchâtel.
   
Type Working paper (English)
Year 2020
Type of work Working Paper
Department Institut de recherches économiques
Institution Université de Neuchâtel (Neuchâtel)
Number of pages 26