Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations

Daniel Kaufmann & Rolf Scheufele

Résumé This paper investigates the information content of a large sectoral mixed-frequency business tendency survey for Switzerland relative to competing early available monthly information. Using a factor-augmented regression framework, we find that a broad set of dimensions of the survey provides additional information for explaining CPI inflation, employment growth and the output gap. However, the survey contains no additional information for GDP growth. A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise suggests that the survey information is particularly useful for forecasting the medium-term CPI inflation.
Citation Kaufmann, D., & Scheufele, R. (2017). Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations. International Journal of Forecasting, 33(4), 878-893.
Type Article de périodique (Anglais)
Date de publication 1-12-2017
Nom du périodique International Journal of Forecasting
Volume 33
Numéro 4
Pages 878-893
URL https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S01692070173...