Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations
Author(s)
Scheufele, Rolf
Date issued
December 1, 2017
In
International Journal of Forecasting
Vol
4
No
33
From page
878
To page
893
Reviewed by peer
1
Abstract
This paper investigates the information content of a large sectoral mixed-frequency business tendency survey for Switzerland relative to competing early available monthly information. Using a factor-augmented regression framework, we find that a broad set of dimensions of the survey provides additional information for explaining CPI inflation, employment growth and the output gap. However, the survey contains no additional information for GDP growth. A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise suggests that the survey information is particularly useful for forecasting the medium-term CPI inflation.
Later version
https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0169207017300547
Publication type
journal article
