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Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations

Author(s)
Kaufmann, Daniel  
Chaire de macroéconomie appliquée  
Scheufele, Rolf
Date issued
December 1, 2017
In
International Journal of Forecasting
Vol
4
No
33
From page
878
To page
893
Reviewed by peer
1
Abstract
This paper investigates the information content of a large sectoral mixed-frequency business tendency survey for Switzerland relative to competing early available monthly information. Using a factor-augmented regression framework, we find that a broad set of dimensions of the survey provides additional information for explaining CPI inflation, employment growth and the output gap. However, the survey contains no additional information for GDP growth. A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise suggests that the survey information is particularly useful for forecasting the medium-term CPI inflation.
Later version
https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0169207017300547
Publication type
journal article
Identifiers
https://libra.unine.ch/handle/20.500.14713/62814
-
https://libra.unine.ch/handle/123456789/28011
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