Land-use trajectories for sustainable land system transformations: Identifying leverage points in a global biodiversity hotspot

Finding entry points where policy has strong leverage to transform land systems for people and nature is pivotal. We develop an innovative framework to identify and evaluate such leverage points along land-use trajectories that account for path dependency. Applied to the biodiversity hotspot Madagascar, the framework reveals three leverage points: Two leverage points are associated with trade-offs between biodiversity, ecosystem services, and agricultural productivity, while the third entails cobenefits. Swift policy action is required, as path dependency caused by forest loss may soon put two leverage points out of reach. We argue that such closing windows of opportunity may be common, but often overlooked, calling for a wider consideration of path dependency in land-system science.