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- PublicationAccès libreLCA of mobility solutions: approaches and findings—66th LCA forum, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, 30 August, 2017(2018-2-15)The presentations and discussions showed that the demand for transportation services will likely continue to grow substantially in the next decades. At the same time, the Paris Agreement requires a substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions to comply with the below 2 °C scenario or even the 1.5 °C scenario. In the past years, a lot of progress was made on the models on transportation and mobility, and the knowledge on the environmental impacts of the various transport modes substantially improved. However, the silver bullet for environmentally benign mobility seems not within reach in the coming years, and reducing the environmental impacts of mobility remains a technological and societal challenge.
- PublicationMétadonnées seulementSectoral agglomeration economies in a panel of European regions(2008-12-17)
;Brülhart, MariusWe estimate agglomeration economies, defined as the effect of density on labour productivity in European regions. The analysis of Ciccone [Ciccone, A., 2002, Agglomeration effects in Europe, European Economic Review, 46 (2), 213-227.] is extended in two main ways. First, we use dynamic panel estimation techniques (system GMM), thus offering an alternative methodological treatment of the inherent endogeneity problem. Second, the sector dimension in the data allows for disaggregated estimation. Our results confirm the presence of significant agglomeration effects at the aggregate level, with an estimated long-run elasticity of 13%. Repeated cross-section regressions suggest that the strength of agglomeration effects has increased over time. At the sector level, the dominant pattern is of cross-sector "urbanisation" economies and own-sector congestion diseconomies. A notable exception is financial services, for which we find strong positive productivity effects from own-sector density.
- PublicationMétadonnées seulementGlobal Manufacturing SO2 Emissions: Does Trade Matter?(Centro Studi Luca d\'Agliano, University of Milano, 2008)
;Grether, Jean Marie ;de Melo, JaimeA growth-decomposition (scale, technique and composition effect) covering 62 countries and 7 manufacturing sectors over the 1990-2000 period shows that trade, through reallocations of activities across countries, has contributed to a 2-3 percent decrease in world SO2 emissions. However, when compared to a constructed counterfactual no-trade benchmark, depending on the base year, trade would have contributed to a 3-10 percent increase in emissions. Finally adding emissions coming from trade-related transport activities, global emissions are increased through trade by 16 percent in 1990 and 13 percent in 2000, the decline being largely attributable to a shift of dirty activities towards cleaner countries.
- PublicationMétadonnées seulementSectoral Agglomeration Economies in a Panel of European Regions(C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, 2007)
;Brülhart, MariusWe estimate agglomeration economies, defined as the effect of density on labour productivity in European regions. The analysis of Ciccone (2002) is extended in two main ways. First, we use dynamic panel estimation techniques (system GMM), thus offering an alternative methodological treatment of the inherent endogeneity problem. Second, the sector dimension in the data allows for disaggregated estimation. Our results confirm the presence of significant agglomeration effects at the aggregate level, with an estimated long-run elasticity of 13 percent. Repeated cross-section regressions suggest that the strength of agglomeration effects has increased over time. At the sector level, the dominant pattern is of cross-sector "urbanisation" economies and own-sector congestion diseconomies. A notable exception is financial services, for which we find strong positive productivity effects from own-sector density.
- PublicationMétadonnées seulementTrade and Climate Change: The Challenges Ahead(C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, 2010)
;de Melo, JaimeThe outcome of the 15th conference of the Parties to the UNFCC showed a shift from a top-down approach with a collective target favoring environmental objectives to a bottom-up accord favoring political feasibility with no meaningful binding agreement in sight as the global climate regime and the global trade policy regime represented by the WTO appear to be on a collision course. Following a review of the alternative architectures for the next Climate Change Agreement, the paper outlines four areas in which trade will play a role: as a purveyor of technological transfer; as a mechanism to separate where abatement takes place from who bears the cots of abatement; as a participation mechanism; and as a way to address the pressures for border adjustments. Political-economy considerations are invoked to predict that a target system with a carbon credit system will be preferable to a carbon tax or to a portfolio system of treaties. A review of evidence on the extent of pollution haven effects suggests that these should be small under climate mitigation policies, especially if efforts are undertaken to raise the price of energy. A discussion of border measures to complement mitigation policies suggests that they are unlikely to be found compatible with the environmental exceptions allowed under article XX of the GATT. The review concludes that an umbrella agreement with leeway where much initial mitigation would first take place unilaterally as under the early days of the GATT might be the most promising way ahead while preserving an open World Trading System and environmental integrity.
- PublicationMétadonnées seulementDeterminants of mobility ownership in Switzerland: changes between 2000 and 2010(2016)
;Kowald, Matthias ;Barbara, Kieser ;Justen, AndreasThe future development in mobility resource ownership is of great interest as the individual mobility behavior has critical impacts on transport infrastructure, land use, energy consumption, and environmental issues, such as greenhouse gas emissions and local air pollutants. Analysis and forecasts of mobility resource ownership as needed for example in transport modelling or forecast studies, however, usually employ data of the latest national travel surveys available. Therefore, changes in mobility resource ownership over time are often ignored. Estimating logit-based decision models on the large scale Swiss national travel survey data for 2000 and 2010, the study identifies determinants of mobility resource ownership for the main mobility resources (driving licenses, car availability, general abonnement travel tickets, and half fare travel tickets), identifying also significant changes over time. The predictor variables comprise socio-economic and socio-demographic variables, spatial structure features, and mobility resource specific characteristics. Our results show that age, sex, income, the size of the community, and geographical region influence mobility resource ownership in both years, 2000 and 2010. Furthermore, car-based and public transport-based mobility resources are substitutes for each other. Between 2000 and 2010 a behavioral change is observed for selected sub-populations: In 2010 women and persons above 40 years old are more likely to own a driving license and have a car available than in 2000. In addition, the positive effect of income on driving license and car ownership becomes smaller over time. Finally the previously neglected variables, such as household structure, employment status and level of education are found to be significant in the explanation of mobility resource ownership.
- PublicationAccès libreA Global Compass for the Great Divergence: Emissions vs. Production Centers of Gravity 1820‐2008We construct the world's centers of gravity for human population, GDP and CO2 emissions by taking the best out of five recognized data sources covering the last two centuries. On the basis of a novel distorsion‐free representation of these centers of gravity, we find a radical Western shift of GDP and CO2 emissions centers in the 19th century, in sharp contrast with the stability of the demographic center of gravity. Both GDP and emissions trends are reversed in the first half of the 20th century, after World War I for CO2 emissions, after World War II for GDP. Since then, both centers are moving eastward at an accelerating speed. These patterns are perfectly consistent with the lead of Western countries starting the industrial revolution, the gradual replacement of coal by oil and gas as alternative sources of energy, and the progressive catch up of Asian countries in the recent past.
- PublicationAccès libreCO2 embodied in trade: trends and fossil fuel driversThe amount of CO2 embodied in trade has substantially increased over the last decades. We contribute to understanding the reasons for this evolution by studying the trends and some drivers of the carbon intensity of trade over the period 1995–2009 in 41 countries and 35 sectors. Our empirical analysis relies on the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) to compute embodied carbon emissions. Our main findings are the following. First, average emission intensity of traded goods is higher than average emission intensity of final demand. Second, relatively “dirty” countries tend to specialize in emission-intensive sectors. Third, the share of goods produced in emission-intensive countries is rising. Finally, we find that coal abundance (measured as fuel rent and controlling for reverse causality) leads both to a specialization in “dirty” sectors and to an increase in emissions per output when controlling for sector structure, which amounts to a fossil fuel endowment effect. These findings suggest trade liberalization may increase global emissions and therefore highlight the importance of considering trade when designing CO2 reduction strategies.
- PublicationAccès libreThe Causal Relationship between Energy Use and Economic Growth in SwitzerlandThis paper investigates the relationships between energy consumption and economic growth in Switzerland over the period 1950–2010. We apply bounds testing techniques to different energy types separately. Robustness tests are performed by including additional variables and restricting the analysis to the period after 1970. The results show that there exist robust long-run relationships going from real GDP toward heating oil and electricity consumption. The relationship between heating oil and GDP is in fact bidirectional, although weaker from heating oil toward GDP than in the reverse direction. When investigating the period 1970–2010 only, the estimate of the long-run income elasticity of electricity consumption loses statistical significance and that for heating oil becomes negative. Those results imply a possible decoupling between GDP growth and energy consumption, so that energy conservation policies are not necessarily expected to have a negative impact on Swiss economic growth.
- PublicationAccès libreTrade, Technique and Composition Effects: What is Behind the Fall in World-Wide SO2 Emissions 1990-2000?Combining unique data bases on emissions with sectoral output and employment data, we study the sources of the fall in world-wide SO2 emissions and estimate the impact of trade on emissions. Contrarily to concerns raised by environmentalists, an emission-decomposition exercise shows that scale effects are dominated by technique effects working towards a reduction in emissions. A second exercise comparing the actual trade situation with an autarky benchmark estimates that trade, by allowing clean countries to become net importers of emissions, leads to a 10% increase in world emissions with respect to autarky in 1990, a figure that shrinks to 3.5% in 2000. Additionally, back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that emissions related to transport are of the same magnitude. In a third exercise, we use linear programming to simulate extreme situations where world emissions are either maximal or minimal. It turns out that effective emissions correspond to a 90% reduction with respect to the worst case, but that another 80% reduction could be reached if emissions were minimal.